Blood and Oil in the Water

Make no mistake, the crisis in the Gulf of Mexico is a serious one for all concerned; for the local fishing industry, for the wildlife, for residents and for those who make a living from the local region. For two groups, however, there is far more at stake: The White House and British Petroleum. For both, this has become a poker game with the highest possible stakes, an all or nothing scenario with everything to lose and only equilibrium to retain. In a situation that has come to dominate the airwaves in the United States, both parties are under fire, with political opponents seeking the opportunity to add blood to the already polluted waters.

This is about far more than pollution and environmentalism. At the heart of the story are two organisations that simply cannot be seen to lose. It is, and will continue to be, a tale of spin control. In one corner stands British Petroleum, the mighty organisation that generates vast fortunes of revenue year in and year out. In the other corner is the White House, occupied by everyone's favourite Nobel laureate, President Obama. Under fire from political opponents for doing seemingly little about the disaster, the president has now made three trips to Louisiana in the past six weeks, in an effort to be seen to be doing something. This has involved holding meetings with local officials and taking photo-opportunity trips to beaches, staring out at the ocean and sifting through the polluted sands.

What does this achieve, one may ask? Well it presents the impression of pro-activity if nothing else. Alas, presidential visits do not simply occur, they are vast exercises in organisation and security. Marine One does not simply deposit POTUS on a beach and then deliver him safely back to the White House. The very business of placing Obama on a beach in Louisiana requires a security detail and planning that will have vastly impacted the ability of those involved in conducting the clean up from simply getting on and doing their job. Instead of working, they will be required to adhere to security restrictions put in place to accommodate Obama's visit. Instead of getting on with the clean up, they will be required to meet with Obama, whilst the president looks stern and resolute for the evening news.

Which is to say that the situation is now simply a political football. The White House is clearly concerned that this will become seen as Obama's Katrina, and the way to avoid this is to lay the blame squarely on BP. Thus far, BP's response has been to attempt to plug the leak in oil, if not in its reputation. Once the oil flow has been stemmed it may be in a better position to explain the complex ownership issues that exist in the oil industry and how it came to be drilling at that time and place and the role of Halliburton in the whole process. Until then, the White House will continue to portray this as an example of greedy (and foreign) investors ruining the American environment. Such a lament is inappropriate, of course, as the American coast is ringed with drilling platforms, merrily pumping away, be it at oil or gas reserves. When Piper Alpha exploded off the British coast, no one was arguing that it was an American disaster and pointing the finger across the Atlantic.

The deregulation that has  contributed to this crisis is not unlike that which accompanied the financial market, and neither is the result. When times are good, deregulation has a thousand fathers. Now it is an orphan. BP and the Obama Administration now face the Poor House. There is only room for one and both will fight to avoid this most ignoble of ends.

Gored by the Supremes

So after 40 years together the Gores are to separate....

This is intriguing. Whatever one makes of the couple, to divorce at this stage in life appears to be somewhat unusual, especially if there are no other parties involved. One wonders if the Gore marriage is the final (hopefully) victim of the decision by the Supreme Court to hand the presidency to George W. Bush in 2000. Had that not occurred, one doubts that this decision would have been announced today. Had that not occurred, Gore would have presided over at least four, if not eight, of the past ten years and have been a worthy occupant of the Oval Office...an Oval Office that he had discussed installing a web-cam in to allow Americans to see what was going on there in the aftermath of Bill Clinton's shenanigans, only for his wife to suggest that it may have to be turned off from time to time.... So with a response like that one wonders where everything has suddenly gone so very wrong?

The saltines of this remark spoke to the warmth of the relationship, captured perfectly (if not a little too vividly) in the embrace and kiss that she received from her husband at the 2000 Democratic National Convention.

Of course many leading politicians lead lives that would appear to be somewhat removed from reality and the former VP is a prime example of this. The former "next President of the United States," has traveled the world presenting his Inconvenient Truth documentary, picking up an Oscar and a Nobel Prize along the way. Alas it seems to have cost him his marriage.

How odd that this once golden couple of Washington politics should part like this. The double irony is that for much of his vice-presidency, it was the marriage of his boss that came under most scrutiny, with many speculating that Hillary would leave Bill Clinton once they left the White House.

Such speculation of course, ignored the fact that they are stronger together and arguably need and understand one another more than most would give credit for.  With her career having now moved to the State Department, Hilary clearly has a path to follow, something that Tipper appears to have lost.

Her early advocacy of mental health issues had its origins in her own bouts of depression, though many are unaware that this fun-loving and at times irascible women was also the driving force behind the Parental Advisory labels that now adorn music products like a badge of honour.  Yep, no Republican twin-set and pearls at work, but a Democrat stay at home mum, appalled at the idea of her teenage daughter listening to Prince's 'Darling Nikki' from Purple Rain. Check out the lyrics, they are worth it for they provide insight into the mindset of the individuals involved and the spirit of the mid-late '80s.

So as the Gore marriage disappears over the horizon, one can only speculate as to what comes next. One can hardly image the multimillionaire Oscar winner staying home polishing his awards and lamenting his receding hairline. Time surely to bury the hatchet with his old boss and dig out Clinton's Little Black Book. After all, Gore still has the best pick up line going; "You can call me, Al....."

Reflecting on Biden's Selection as VP

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUIhgWEz308

I have long been critical of Joe Biden, way before his time as president. In 2008 I was interviewed about his nomination as vice presidential candidate and the implications this may have for the race for the White House….

Barack Obama had talking about change from the first day of his campaign. A year later, when pressed to make his first, most defining decision, he chose a white, male senator from Delaware. In that moment it should have become clear about what ‘change’ would mean under Obama’s presidency. The selection revealed the extent to which Obama would playing it safe, both as a candidate, and subsequently as president.

Presidential candidates have historically sought to balance the ticket, in terms of age or geography. In 1960, Senator John F. Kennedy, who Obama supporters constantly sought to compare their candidate to, chose Lyndon Johnson from Texas, which split the ticket geographically and regarding age and experience. Kennedy was from the north, Johnston from the South.  But with Johnson here was the bonus that if he could carry his state of Texas then Kennedy’s chances of winning were greatly improved. Joe Biden is from Delaware, a tiny state with only 3 Electoral College votes that historically votes Democrat, so even if he does succeed in carrying his home state, it doesn't really help an awful lot

Joe Biden has always presented himself as having a lot of experience in foreign affairs, due to his time on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He has never shrunk from the U.S. engagement on a global scale and believed that he would bring credibility to the democratic ticket on foreign policy. This was an example of Barack Obama seeking to inoculate himself against claims of inexperience in a vital policy area heading into the election. He was weak on foreign affairs and international relations and believed that this could be alleviated by bringing in Senator Biden.

However, a very quick search on YouTube reveals the challenges involved in selecting Joe Biden. A vice president candidate should ideally not to put a foot wrong for risk of damaging the campaign. Indeed, a vital question to be addressed before selecting a candidate is the extent to which a vice-presidential candidate can help or hinder the top of the ticket.

Joe Biden’s inability to stay on message has defined his careers to date. His capacity to quote liberally from Neil Kinnock’s speeches exemplify the challenges he faces and the potential for his words and deeds to come back to haunt him as the election approaches.

This gives John McCain the luxury of going second, of being able to see the reaction that Senator Biden’s selection generates and to potentially do something different and groundbreaking, such as placing a woman on the ticket in an attempt to prove that Obama is no longer the change candidate.