Discussing 2012's Iowa Caucus on Sky News

The first ballots are about to be cast in the Iowa caucuses and the race remains wide open.  Mitt Romney is leading in national polls and has been throughout the early stages of the 2012 election cycle. It is important, however, to discount national polling and look at state polling, because Iowa is very much a law unto itself. This also is a statewide caucus. There is not one caucus, but rather a whole series of these events which take place in various locations, including schools, town halls, and even in people's houses. This is not a primary, and some votes will take place by a show of hands, so it is an unusual process.

While Iowa is not representative of the rest of America, the Iowa Caucuses are important because Iowa prides itself on being the first state in the nation to go to the polls. This allows potentially obscure candidates to do well and emerge on the national stage.  Jimmy Carter in 1976 and George Bush in 1980 both gained national prominence because of their success in Iowa, providing what Bush termed ‘The Big Mo (momentum)’ before heading into the New Hampshire Primary.

Mitt Romney’s slim lead in national polls is indicative of his reputation for being a safe pair of hands, but he also has a series of negative aspects that will potentially hamper his campaign. He is a Mormon, something that has repeatedly been raised as a challenge for him.  He is also from New Hampshire, which is not a natural territory for a staunch Republican, causing many to wonder if he is too liberal for the national party. However, Iowa is very much about local, regional issues, so you have leading contenders going into people's homes and talking about ethanol and farming issues. This is retail politics, and people won't vote for a candidate unless they have met them at least three times.

Michelle Bachman has been comparing herself to Margaret Thatcher in recent days, but this does not appear to be resonating with voters. She has become the forgotten candidate in Iowa, where she was expected to do very well.  Instead, she has plummeted in the polls over the past several weeks. Her attempt to draw parallels with the former British prime minister, in large part due to the recent release of the movie, The Iron Lady, appears to be a final, last-gasp roll of the dice, and comes at a time when people are flocking from her campaign team.

Polling indicates that there are a lot of Republican voters who are uninspired by the candidates, ensuring that the Democratic Party is rubbing its hands together.  Barack Obama's greatest gift right now is his opponents, who are arguably a rather disparate group. The fact that Mitt Romney is leading in the polls is indicative of how under-represented the right wing is in American politics, and within the Republican Party. In the coming days 120,000 Iowans will make a big impact upon who the next president United States could be.