2024 Election Forecast

Every 4 years at this point in a presidential election, every self-centered, self-satisfied academic who ever glanced through a Disney Resort brochure in a Thomas Cook travel agent suddenly fancies themselves as an expert on U.S. politics and decides that they can suddenly offer some mystical insight as to the next occupant of the White House. This is always done in such a way, of course, to ensure that whatever the result, they will be correct. It’s a little like those creatures at think tanks who take in fortunes in corporate sponsorship to fly around the world on fact finding missions without ever actually spending time with normal people to ascertain voting intent, who then quietly whisper a name in a dark room when no one is watching and then claim to have forecast the result.

After the fact of course. 

So. Instead of such tomfoolery I have decided to share some thoughts on the election as it stands today (September 24) and forecast a likely outcome.

Now, this is 2024, so I am very aware that making a forecast comes with all kinds of challenges, not least of which is the fact that by doing so, one is forced to pick a winner. Doing so is a risky proposition, as this may imply a personal preference and with it, a whole heap of personal and political baggage that leads to assumptions, accusations, and so on….

So, let me state unequivocally, that my forecast is not based on any personal preference. As a green card holder, I cannot vote in the election and therefore have no personal, political axe to grind, and am not trying to encourage anyone to vote in any particular direction. I would, however, encourage everyone to vote. Despite the attention that the race has received one thing will be sadly predictable: In state after state more people will abstain from voting than will ever vote for a particular candidate. 

So here is my forecast: 

I believe that the Republican Party candidate will prevail in November. I am predicting an Electoral College victory of 297 votes. I also think he will win a narrow plurality of the popular vote.

My conclusion is based upon a determination of previous voter turnout, apparent voter intent for 2024, and some good old-fashioned guesswork. 

Very clearly, and despite Obama’s flawed analysis, there are indeed red states and blue states, and these can easily be identified in any attempt to ascertain likely voter intent in November. Once these core states have been allocated, the remaining states can be analyzed in terms of recent polling decisions, demographics, etc.

Regardless of the result, I think it is beholden upon all of us who teach, pontificate, speculate, write, or think about these things to make some sort of determination. It’s not about being right or wrong, it’s about making a determination based upon a consideration of facts and making an analytical decision. I have made mine, and I encourage anyone reading this to do the same. Good luck.